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Gold Trading During CPI
Why core CPI moves Gold more than the headline number, and how to trade XAUUSD in the hour after a US inflation release.
US CPI is released at 12:30 UTC (14:30 SAST), usually mid-month. For Gold it is often a larger event than payrolls, because inflation data changes both the numerator and the denominator of the real yield that Gold is priced against.
Core CPI carries the move
Headline CPI includes food and energy and is noisy. Markets price the policy path off core CPI, particularly the month-on-month figure. A headline miss with a hot core will usually see Gold's initial rally sold within minutes.
Watch the core month-on-month print to one decimal place. A 0.3% versus 0.2% difference has repeatedly been worth more than fifteen dollars on XAUUSD.
The typical Gold reaction pattern
- Softer-than-expected core: yields fall, dollar softens, Gold bid — often with follow-through into the New York session.
- Hotter-than-expected core: yields rise, dollar firms, Gold sold — moves tend to be sharper but shorter.
- In line with expectations: an initial two-way spike that resolves back into the pre-release range, frequently the best day to leave alone.
Trading plan for CPI day
Mark the pre-release range in the hour before the print. After the release, the extremes of the first fifteen-minute candle become the reference levels for the rest of the session. A clean break and retest of one of those extremes, in the direction implied by the yield reaction, is the setup we look for.
Position size is halved and stops are placed beyond the spike wick, not beyond a tight intraday level that no longer means anything.