Gold Analysis – 24 August 2026

Gold trading remains constructive ahead of the London open, recovering from an early Asian session dip to 4,651.80 to trade back above the 4,700.00 psychological level. The intraday base case assumes buyers will look to defend the session open on any minor retracements to target a retest of the session high.

Key support levels

• 4,673.40 — Session open and daily pivot confluence area
• 4,651.80 — Session low and key structural demand zone on the H4 timeframe
• 4,630.00 — Previous resistance now turned support, aligning with the 50-period EMA

Key resistance levels

• 4,716.70 — Asian session high and immediate structural liquidity pool
• 4,735.00 — Minor 1.272 Fibonacci extension of the recent H4 corrective wave
• 4,750.00 — Major psychological level and swing high target from the daily chart

Potential buy zones

• 4,673.40 to 4,680.00 — Retracement buy zone, requiring an M15 bullish engulfing candle or displacement structure to trigger entry
• Above 4,717.00 — Breakout buy zone on a sustained H1 candle close above the session high, targeting 4,735.00

Potential sell zones

• 4,712.00 to 4,716.70 — Tactical counter-trend sell zone on clear signs of exhaustion or an H1 shooting star pattern, targeting 4,685.00

Economic events

• 13:30 UTC — US Durable Goods Orders (moderate to high volatility expected for USD/XAU)
• 15:00 UTC — US Richmond Manufacturing Index (low to moderate impact on USD yields)

US dollar impact

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading softly near its weekly low, providing an immediate tailwind for the precious metal. A failure to recapture the 101.50 resistance area will likely sustain the current bid in XAUUSD. Conversely, a sharp USD short-covering rally would challenge the gold bulls.

Treasury yields

US 10-year Treasury yields remain capped below the 3.85% threshold, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. This supportive yield environment aligns with the constructive structural path for XAUUSD today.

Geopolitical factors

Persistent risk-off positioning in Eastern Europe maintains a stable geopolitical premium, ensuring bids emerge on any sharp intraday drops.

Technical outlook

• Daily: The primary trend remains strongly bullish with the price maintaining its position above the 20-day moving average.
• H4: A bullish morning star pattern has printed off the 4,651.80 low, suggesting structural continuation.
• M15: The market is currently consolidating in a tight flag formation just below the 4,702.00 short-term liquidity level.

Trade invalidation

A sustained H4 candle close below 4,651.80 invalidates the bullish intraday bias, shifting the outlook to neutral-bearish.

Conclusion

The primary intraday strategy is to buy dips into the 4,673–4,680 area, provided structural confirmation develops on the lower timeframes. Alternatively, a clean breakout above 4,716.70 offers momentum-based long opportunities towards 4,735.00. Strict risk management must be enforced, with all long bias abandoned should 4,651.80 fail on a closing basis. Maintain typical volume sizes as we transition into the New York session.

Setups derived from this outlook are published on the Gold Trading Signals page and in the GOLD Scalper Telegram channel. Closed results appear in the performance log.