Gold Analysis – 4 November 2026

Gold has surged 1.72% overnight, breaking out of its previous consolidation range on strong Asian momentum. The intraday base case points to a continuation towards the 3,980 region, provided immediate support holds during the London open. We expect brief consolidation before European volume drives the next leg.

Key support levels

• 3,950.00 — Psychological level and intraday consolidation zone.
• 3,932.50 — Asian session breakout base and H1 value area high.
• 3,898.80 — Prior daily close and major structural pivot.

Key resistance levels

• 3,982.00 — 1.618 Fibonacci expansion of the H4 range.
• 4,000.00 — Major psychological milestone and options barrier.
• 4,015.00 — Uncharted territory projection.

Potential buy zones

• 3,945.00 to 3,952.00 — Pullback zone; buy trigger requires an M15 bullish engulfing candle or clear liquidity sweep of the Asian low.

Potential sell zones

• 3,982.00 to 3,985.00 — Counter-trend exhaustion zone; sell trigger requires an H1 bearish pin bar confirming rejection of the Fibonacci expansion level.

Economic events

• 09:30 UTC — UK Final Services PMI (Moderate impact via GBP/USD volatility)
• 13:15 UTC — US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (High impact on USD and Gold pricing)
• 15:00 UTC — US ISM Services PMI (High impact, primary driver of US yields and dollar direction)

US dollar impact

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading softly, hovering near its weekly lows as market participants price in monetary easing. Sustained dollar weakness below the 101.50 pivot is providing a structural tailwind for XAUUSD. Any surprise USD strength post-ADP could trigger a sharp corrective pullback in Gold.

Treasury yields

US 10-year Treasury yields have slipped below 3.95%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. This yield contraction supports the immediate bullish momentum in Gold.

Geopolitical factors

Safe-haven bidding remains elevated due to unresolved trade negotiations in East Asia. This persistent risk premium prevents deep retracements and supports buying on dips.

Technical outlook

• Daily: A strong bullish breakout above the previous ascending triangle ceiling, signalling long-term trend continuation.
• H4: Stochastic RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting potential minor consolidation or a shallow pullback before the next leg up.
• M15: Price is printing higher highs and higher lows, maintaining a strict bullish structure above the VWAP.

Trade invalidation

A sustained H1 candle close below 3,932.50 invalidates the bullish thesis, shifting the intraday bias to neutral-bearish.

Conclusion

The execution plan today focuses on buying high-quality pullbacks within the established daily trend. We monitor the 3,950 level closely as our primary entry zone for long positions, targeting 3,982. Strict risk management is mandatory; stop-losses must be placed below the 3,932 invalidation level to protect capital against sudden news-driven reversals.

Setups derived from this outlook are published on the Gold Trading Signals page and in the GOLD Scalper Telegram channel. Closed results appear in the performance log.