Gold Analysis – 22 October 2026

The Asian session witnessed a sharp correction in XAUUSD, dropping 1.29% from the open of 4,159.00 to test the 4,103.40 region. Our intraday base case expects sellers to retain control beneath the 4,128.00 pivot, targeting a deeper test of psychological support at 4,100.00.

Key support levels

• 4,100.00 — Psychological level and key Asian session low support.
• 4,085.50 — H4 structural swing low and previous demand zone origin.
• 4,062.00 — Daily 20-period exponential moving average dynamic support.

Key resistance levels

• 4,128.00 — Intraday VWAP and descending M15 trendline intersection.
• 4,159.00 — Daily session open level and crucial structural pivot.
• 4,164.30 — Intraday session high and local supply zone limit.

Potential buy zones

• 4,085.50 to 4,090.00 zone — triggered on a bullish H1 reversal pattern with targeting set to 4,115.00.

Potential sell zones

• 4,120.00 to 4,128.00 zone — triggered on an M15 bearish rejection candle, targeting 4,100.00.

Economic events

• 12:30 UTC — US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (high volatility expected for Gold)
• 13:45 UTC — US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (medium impact on XAUUSD via USD index)

US dollar impact

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded firmly during the Asian session, putting pressure on non-yielding metals. If the greenback holds its gains ahead of the US macroeconomic releases, XAUUSD will remain structurally capped. A breakdown in DXY below 103.20 would be required to alleviate this selling pressure.

Treasury yields

US 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher to 4.21%, raising the opportunity cost of holding Gold. Higher yields continue to underpin the dollar, neutralising near-term bullish recovery attempts in XAUUSD.

Geopolitical factors

Risk premium remains relatively stable despite ongoing Middle East tensions. Safe-haven flows are temporarily taking a backseat to US macroeconomic data and yield dynamics.

Technical outlook

• Daily chart shows a bearish engulfing candle forming, signalling a correction from recent highs.
• H4 structure has shifted bearish with the break below the 4,135.00 swing level.
• M15 RSI is oversold at 28.5, suggesting a potential short-term pullback towards the 4,120.00 resistance before further downside.

Trade invalidation

A sustained hourly close above 4,135.00 invalidates the intraday bearish outlook.

Conclusion

The primary strategy for the London session is to monitor pullbacks into the 4,120.00–4,128.00 resistance zone for short opportunities. If 4,100.00 fails to hold as support, expect an acceleration towards 4,085.50. Risk must be strictly managed with stops placed above 4,135.00, keeping position sizes conservative ahead of the US data.

Setups derived from this outlook are published on the Gold Trading Signals page and in the GOLD Scalper Telegram channel. Closed results appear in the performance log.